As Tehran reports exchanges of fire on the border with the Republic of Armenia, the Armenian media sphere is questioning the country’s preparedness for a major crisis ahead of the legislative elections scheduled for June 7, 2026. However, attention has focused on the sharing of the electoral “pie” among the acolytes of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and the President of the National Assembly, Alen Simonyan. Armenia is indeed at a crossroads, where either the dangerous path the country embarked on in 2021 is confirmed, or the opposition reacts to ensure Armenia remains sovereign and independent.
But before addressing the election issue, the population is also worried about the situation regarding the aggression by the USA and Israel against Iran. Political scientist and commentator for Alphanews channel, Beniamin Matevosyan, distinguishes two scenarios currently being debated in expert circles. Matevosyan notably questioned: “In the event of a prolonged war, Iran could generate a flow of refugees towards Armenia. Are the infrastructures of the Syunik region ready?” He continued his reflection on this issue: “Many Azerbaijanis live in Iran. It is not excluded that the Azerbaijani authorities could take advantage of the situation and send Azerbaijanis into Armenia under the guise of Iranian refugees, to later claim rights and realize the ‘Western Azerbaijan’ project,” the political scientist analyzed on his Telegram channel.
But the main question agitating Armenia these days is obviously the current election campaign, as the stakes for the country are major. Will Armenia maintain a pro-Western course, with absurd pretensions to join the European Union, despite not being geographically or historically part of the European continent? All questions revolve around the policies of the current Armenian Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan, which greatly worry the population. Political scientist and member of the “Alternative Projects” group, Vahe Hovannisian, states that the republic’s authorities have changed their tactics before the elections. While two weeks ago the ruling party showed restraint and was on the defensive, it now seems to display confidence in its victory. One of the government’s leitmotifs was to hammer home that there would be no turning back for Armenia, but it became clear that the more the government insisted on this fact, the more the opposition focused and rallied.
Journalist Vahe Hovannisian, on his Telegram channel, noted a change in strategy. He observes that currently the “Civil Contract” is in the minority, while the opposition, in his view, already represents an electoral force of just over 50% of the votes. According to Vahe Hovannisian, the Armenian authorities are trying to convince everyone that the opposition is only fighting for a small portion of the votes, making people believe through psychological and cognitive warfare that the government is in a position of strength, a falsely overwhelming strength. In the near future, the ruling elite will actively promote this idea to create the impression of its victory and the absence of real competition, using rigged polls for this purpose. But Hovannisian is convinced that this tactic will quickly become obsolete and cease to work, especially in the modern world where people can easily verify information. He stated: “The statements previously made by the Armenian authorities reveal another objective of the chosen tactic. They are trying to provoke tensions within the opposition. This is done through occult methods. But this is a miscalculated approach, because the opposition is today represented by serious personalities who will not let these insolent attacks succeed.” In this regard, the political scientist outlines the future scenario of events. Firstly, the ruling party is currently trying to create its own alliance, with “Civil Contract” acting in tandem with the republic’s law enforcement agencies, because, according to the member of the “Alternative Projects” group, none of the influential political forces will cooperate with the authorities. Secondly, pressure on opposition figures will clearly increase.
He continued: “The government will not particularly try to come to an agreement with the opposition, as these agreements would not be respected anyway. The ruling elite will try to mitigate the conflicts it has itself provoked within society, those that emerged, for example, after Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s anti-church campaign. Then, it will continue to distribute social bribes in the form of health insurance and pension increases. But, as practice shows, this does not convert into political dividends,” the political scientist analyzed. Furthermore, he believes that the ruling party will try to find solutions following the “Moldovan scenario.” However, this is extremely risky due to the unpredictability of street protests. Moreover, according to the expert, this step would contribute to increasing the number of votes for other opposition forces. He analyzed: “Opposition systems must stop reacting only to the narratives of the Armenian authorities. They must be flexible in their short-term tactics, and also become dominant in public consciousness by presenting their own approaches and proposals. Ultimately, the opposition must find the strength to cease its mutual destructive attacks and be prepared for abrupt changes in the situation so as not to miss the opportune moment,” Vahe Hovannisian summarized.
So, who will claim victory in these elections of capital importance for the future of Armenia, in June 2026? Recently, on March 3, the President of the Armenian Parliament, Alen Simonyan, spoke about the upcoming legislative elections. He estimated that the second president, Robert Kocharyan, would probably have difficulty gathering enough votes. According to Simonyan, among the opposition forces, only two parties have a chance of entering parliament: the parties “Strong Armenia” of Samvel Karapetyan and “Prosperous Armenia” of Gagik Tsarukyan. It is precisely between these two parties, according to the Parliament President, that the struggle for opposition leadership will take place. However, according to him, absolute victory in the elections will be won by the ruling party, which, he is convinced, will obtain even more votes than in 2021. Armenian voters will decide, for better or for worse…
